Spotlight: Imtech

The stock price of Imtech (AMS:IM) has been in a rollercoaster today. Imtech issued a rights claim this morning, issuing 60 billion new stocks with a value of €0.01 per stock. The market reacted with putting Imtech 2000% higher today. One hour later, 'only' 1000% remains. This raises the question whether Imtech is now over- or underpriced. A quick and simple calculation tells us that Imtech's market value was €146 million yesterday. The rights claim created €600 million cash for Imtech, resulting in a total value of €746 million today. If we divide this by the total (new) amount of shares outstanding we see that the share price would reflect Imtech's real value if the stock price is €0.012. The stock price however, is currently trading at €0.13. We see here a clear indication that the stock market is not efficient, because it is also influenced by speculations and psychology. A stock price of €0.13 seems very cheap and is for many private investors a reason to buy Imtech, however, if we compare this price to the real value of €0.012 you still pay an incredible amount for the Imtech stock. Also, speculations drive the price of Imtech, with no particular reason. Once investors all do their calculations, the stock price is likely to revert to the real value of €0.012, which is a decline of 90% compared to the current stock price of Imtech. In conclusion, with relative high certainty we may expect the stock price of Imtech to fall to the level of €0.012, making Imtech a no-go (unless you want to consider going short).